The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) continues to move more aggressively in an effort to tackle inflation that remains stubbornly high. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate five times in six months from near zero to a range of 3%–3.25% in September, the highest level in 15 years, and signaled additional rate hikes through the end of the year.
Inflation has remained elevated through the first half of 2022. Given the current strength of the labor market, the Fed is likely to prioritize combating inflation over continued employment growth.
The US economy has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace due to inflation, continued supply chain obstacles, and the geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the prolonged crisis in Ukraine. Near-term headwinds, led by inflation, cloud future growth prospects.
Despite the ongoing global pandemic over the last two years, the US economy has continued to grow for the sixth consecutive quarter. However, new variants continue to complicate the recovery.
While the post-COVID recovery is well underway, the coronavirus and its variants continue to affect consumer and business confidence and behavior. GDP grew in the third quarter, for the fifth consecutive quarter, although the pace of growth was slower compared to the second quarter.
The US economy has grown for four consecutive quarters since the COVID-19 recession officially ended in April 2020. Many economic indicators have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but employment has notably lagged. While the economic recovery continues, virus variants complicate the outlook.
Officially one year removed from the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US economy appears to be on the path to recovery.
Each quarter, we like to share our insights on the current real estate market as well as broader economic conditions, and how that informs the opportunities we make available to the Alpha Investing network. We are also providing a brief update on our portfolio, including recent transactions.
Each quarter, we like to share our insights on the current real estate market as well as broader economic conditions, and how that informs the opportunities we make available to the Alpha Investing network.
As the US economy begins its fractured re-opening, the resurgence of COVID-19 is creating hotspots that necessitate the re-shuttering of local economies. Until the country can get a handle on containing current and future outbreaks, a return to "normal" activity will be out of the question.
COVID-19 has brought about drastic policy and economic actions, in addition to an unprecedented shift in human behavior. This has yielded rampant uncertainty in all markets, and a historic spike in unemployment. In the midst of this uncertainty, Alpha is well positioned to weather the current downturn, and we intend to maintain a high degree of patience and discipline in the new environment.